How to Know If a House Is a Good Flip (Before You Buy)

Because your profit isn’t made on demo day—it’s made before the contract is signed.

One of the biggest rookie mistakes in house flipping?
Falling in love with the vibe of a house before you run the math.

We get it. That wraparound porch. The clawfoot tub. The “great bones.”

But here's the truth: just because a house feels like a good flip doesn't mean it is.

So how do smart investors know when a deal’s actually worth it—before they buy?

Let’s break it down REAP-style: no fluff, no HGTV fantasy. Just real filters for real decisions.

✅ Step 1: Know Your Buy Box

Before you analyze any deal, you need a Buy Box—your set of non-negotiables.

A good flip for someone else might be a disaster for you.

Your Buy Box should answer:

• What price range are you comfortable in?
• What neighborhoods are you targeting?
• What size/condition homes fit your skill and budget?
• What’s your ideal ARV and holding timeline?

If the house doesn’t match your box, pass. Period.

✅ Step 2: Run the Comps (Not the Zillow Estimate)

You want real numbers—not guesses.

Here’s how to comp it right:

• Use recent sales only (past 90–120 days)
• Stay within ½ to 1 mile of the subject property
• Match beds, baths, square footage, and lot size
• Adjust for condition and finishes

Red flag: If your ARV is based on a sale from 8 months ago in a different zip code, you’re already in risky territory.

✅ Step 3: Estimate Repairs Like a Realist

Wishful thinking is the #1 budget killer.

Before you close, you should have:

• A contractor walk the property with you (if possible)
• A room-by-room scope of work
• Quotes or estimates for each major category (kitchen, roof, plumbing, etc.)

Always add 10–20% for surprises. Because there will be surprises.

✅ Step 4: Use the 70% Rule

The golden rule of flipping math:
ARV × 70% − Repairs = Max Purchase Price

Let’s say:

• ARV is $300,000
• Repairs are $50,000
  → $300,000 × 0.70 = $210,000
  → $210,000 − $50,000 = $160,000 max offer

If you can’t get it under contract near that number, walk away. You’re not flipping—you’re gambling.

✅ Step 5: Know Your Exit Plan Before You Enter

A good flip always has an exit strategy—and sometimes a backup.

Ask yourself:

• Will I list this and sell in 90–120 days?
• Can I refinance or rent it out if the market shifts?
• What’s my worst-case scenario?

If you don’t have a clear exit, it’s not a flip—it’s a trap.

✅ Step 6: Don’t Get Emotionally Attached

If you find yourself saying things like:

• “But I really love the curb appeal…”
• “I just feel like this could be a great deal…”

🚨 Pause.
That’s not investing—that’s daydreaming.

Your calculator doesn’t lie. Use it.

Final Thought: A Good Flip Starts Before the Purchase

At REAP, we teach that you make your money when you buy—not when you sell. If the numbers don’t work before the deal closes, they definitely won’t magically fix themselves later.

And if you’re not sure how to analyze a flip properly?
That’s what we’re here for.

Want to Flip Smarter?

✅ Join our next free class
✅ Take the Flip Starter Pro course (only $97)
✅ Or work 1:1 with us through Blueprint or Navigator

Because you don’t need to guess—you just need a game plan.

Dad Joke Bonus:
My wife told me to stop impersonating a flamingo.
I had to put my foot down.